Papers
Türkiye'deki Hükümetlerin Makroekonomik Performanslarının Bir Karşılaştırması, 1987-2007
2007, Munich Personal RePEc Archive (MPRA) Paper No. 3962
Belirli bir dönemde farklı ülkelerde veya belirli bir ülkede farklı dönemlerde iktidarda bulunan hükümetlerin makroekonomik performanslarının çok bileşenli endeksler yardımıyla karşılaştırılması, uzun yıllardan beridir iktisatçıların, politikacıların ve kamuoyunun ilgisini çekmektedir. Bu çalışmada, son 20 yılda Türkiye’yi yöneten 14 hükümetin (46.-59. hükümetler) ekonomi alanındaki politika başarılarının, seçilmiş 10 temel makroekonomik göstergeden türetilen alternatif aylık genel endeksler yardımıyla ayrıntılı bir biçimde karşılaştırılması amaçlanmıştır. Literatürdeki Okun, Barro veya LIMEP türü performans endekslerinden farklı olarak bu çalışmadaki endeksler belirli bir hükümet ve iktidarda bulunduğu dönem için tek bir ortalama endeks rakamından oluşmak yerine, tarihî ortalaması sıfır olan aylık birer zaman serisi biçiminde tasarlanmıştır. Çalışmada oluşturulan en kapsamlı performans endeksiyle (MEP10) ilgili ayrıntılı değerlendirmelere göre, son 20 yılda, devir aldığı kötü makroekonomik verileri en başarılı biçimde düzelten hükümetler olarak bir yıllık Refahyol hükümeti (Haziran 1996 – Haziran 1997) ve beş aylık 1. Yılmaz hükümeti (Haziran 1991 – Kasım 1991); göstergeleri gelecek hükümete en iyi durumda devreden hükümet olarak ise 23 ay ömürlü 2. Özal hükümeti
(Aralık 1987 – Kasım 1989) öne çıkmaktadır. Başta 1994 döviz krizinin yaratıcısı Çiller (Haziran 1993 – Mart 1996) ve 2000-2001 ekonomik krizlerinin yaratıcısı Ecevit (Ocak 1999 – Kasım 2002) hükümetleri olmak üzere, onların döneminde kriz çıkmasına giden süreci kötü yönetimleriyle adeta önceden hazırlayan Akbulut (Kasım 1989 – Haziran 1991), 7. Demirel (Kasım 1991 – Haziran 1993), 3. Yılmaz (Haziran 1997 – Ocak 1999) ve 2. Yılmaz (Mart 1996 – Haziran 1996) hükümetleri makroekonomik performansları oldukça başarısız hükümetler olarak dikkat çekmektedir. Kasım 2002’den bu yana görev başında bulunan AKP hükümetleri ise, özellikle
Nisan 2003 – Nisan 2006 döneminde sağlanan makroekonomik başarıyı iktidarlarının son aylarında (Mayıs 2006 – Nisan 2007) yüksek işsizlik oranı, cari hesap açıkları ve toplam dış borç artışları gibi olumsuz gelişmeler
nedeniyle sürdürememiş ve başlangıçta MEP10’u iyileştirerek elde ettikleri krediyi, 22 Temmuz 2007 seçimlerine doğru yaklaşılırken neredeyse tümüyle tüketmiş gibi gözükmektedir. Ayrıca, bu çalışmanın diğer önemli bulgularına göre, (i) Türkiye’de hükümetlerin daha uzun ömürlü oldukları ölçüde daha başarılı olduklarına, (ii) görece daha iyi MEP10 mirası devir alan hükümetlerin daha uzun süre iktidarda kalabildiklerine, (iii) görece daha kötü miras devralan hükümetlerin iktidar süresinin daha kısa olduğuna ve (iv) iktidarda daha uzun süre kalmayı başarabilen hükümetlerin gelecek hükümete daha iyi MEP10 mirası devir edebildiklerine dair hipotezler ampirik olarak desteklenmemektedir.
Not: Bu çalışmanın bulgularının Mart 2008 ve Mart 2009'daki güncelleştirilmiş halleri için http://kibritcioglu.com/iktisat/blog/?p=1666 adresine bakabilirsiniz.
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The Labour Market Implications of Large-Scale Restructuring in the Banking Sector in Turkey
2006, Munich Personal RePEc Archive (MPRA) Paper No. 2457
This paper is concerned with the causes, timing and effects of banking sector restructuring and financial crisis in Turkey. The main focus of the study, however, is on labour market implications of the banking crisis and banking reform in recent years. The paper is organised as follows. Section 2 presents a brief summary of the macroeconomic background to the latest banking sector crisis in Turkey. In section 3, the efforts of recent Turkish Governments towards restructuring and rehabilitation of the banking sector are considered. Then, following a statistical review of the main features of the Turkish banking sector, section 4 focuses on the labour market problems that can be linked to the Government's restructuring and rehabilitation programme in banking. Section 5 draws some lessons from this restructuring programme. Finally, section 6 concludes with some remarks on future prospects in the banking sector.
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Inflation, Output Growth, and Stabilization in Turkey, 1980-2002
2004, co-authored with Sel Dibooglu, published in 'Journal of Economics and Business'
We study output and inflation in Turkey in the last two decades using a dynamic aggregate supply and aggregate demand model with imperfect capital mobility and structural Vector Autoregressions (VAR). Empirical results show terms of trade, monetary, and balance of payments shocks figure prominently in the inflationary process. Output is mostly driven by terms of trade and supply shocks. The results highlight the importance of a credible disinflation program and structural reforms that restrain discretionary aggregate demand policies.
[ScienceDirect: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jeconbus.2003.04.001]
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A Short Review of the Long History of High Inflation in Turkey
2004, published in: Shilpa M. Rao (ed.), 'Inflation: Concepts and Experiences', Hyderabad: The ICFAI University Press, Ch. 9, pp. 84-109
After experiencing high and persistent inflation for more than two decades, Turkey is entering a period of single-digit inflation again. Following a summary of the macroeconomic developments occurred since early 1970s, this paper attempts to survey the empirical literature both on the dynamics of chronic inflation and on the possible effects of disinflation in Turkey.
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Monitoring Banking Sector Fragility
2003, published in 'Arab Bank Review', 5/2: 51-66
In the financial crisis literature, it is usually argued that, contrary to the case of currency crises, building a time series index to identify banking crisis episodes is highly difficult, particularly because of the lack of reliable data on banking sector variables (non-performing loans, etc.). Accordingly, existing methods applied to pinpoint banking crisis years are generally event-based, such as that used by Caprio and Klingebiel (1996 and 1999) and Lindgren et al. (1996). This paper, however, proposes a weighted banking sector fragility index to measure changes in banks' vulnerability to crisis. Using monthly sectoral data for selected 22 countries, it is argued that this type of a fragility index seems to be highly useful in measurement and monitoring of changes in banking sector fragility. That is, it significantly may contribute to policy makers' efforts towards early detection of approaching banking sector difficulties.
[To download the country-specific BSF indices calculated in the paper, please visit: http://kibritcioglu.com/iktisat/banking/]
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Causes of Inflation in Turkey: A Literature Survey with Special Reference to Theories of Inflation
2002, published in 'Inflation and Disinflation in Turkey', pp. 43-76
Turkey has experienced high and persistent inflation for more than twenty years. This chapter attempts firstly to survey the extremely broad literature on theories of inflation, in order to be able to classify, understand and discuss the dynamics of inflation more carefully. In this chapter, it is mainly argued that inflation may be interpreted as a net result of sophisticated and continuous interactions of demand-side (or monetary) shocks, supply-side (or real) shocks, price-adjustment (or inertial) factors and political processes (or institutional factors). The second aim of the chapter is to compare the existing empirical studies on Turkish inflation, by considering their sample period, data frequency, empirical methods, modeled macroeconomic variables and main results. Most of the studies reviewed here seem to have focused primarily on demand-side determinants (e. g., monetary growth and budget deficits), and partially on some supply-side factors (e. g., nominal exchange rates and oil prices). On the other hand, the components, degree and effects of inflation inertia need to be investigated in more detail. In the future, the modeling attempts of the inflationary dynamics in Turkey would profit from the so-called “new political macroeconomics” because the role of the political process and institutions is not a weak explanatory factor of Turkish inflation that is easily ignored.
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On the Smithian Origins of "New" Trade and Growth Theories
2002, published in "Economics Bulletin', 2/1: 1-15
Adam Smith is generally ignored as a trade theorist in textbooks and surveys because of the common belief that he only confirmed the rule of absolute advantages to explain structure of foreign trade. On the other hand, many textbooks and surveys on growth theories simply overlook Smith's significant contributions to growth theory. However, his vent-for-surplus approach may be interpreted as a pioneering study which stresses the importance of economies-of-scale in explaining the structure of trade. Furthermore, in Smith (1776), both learning by doing and economies-of-scale are crucial to explain long-run growth. This short paper addresses to the undeniable influence of Smith's concepts such as "extent of the market", "division of labor", "improved dexterity in every particular workman" and "simple inventions coming from workman" on both recent trade and growth models. The note mainly is based on a schematic outline of Smith's ideas on the nature and causes of the wealth of nations.
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Türkiye'de Ekonomik Krizler ve Hükümetler, 1969-2001
2001, Yeni Türkiye Dergisi, Ekonomik Kriz Özel Sayısı, Cilt 1, Yıl 7, Sayı 41 (Eylül-Ekim): s. 174-182.
Ekonomik krizler; herhangi bir mal, hizmet, uretim faktoru veya doviz piyasasindaki fiyat ve/veya miktarlarda, kabul edilebilir bir degisme sinirinin otesinde gerceklesen siddetli dalgalanmalar olarak tanimlanabilir. Soz konusu krizlerin ortaya cikisi ve olasi sonuclarinin bir ulkedeki politik istikrarsizlikla yakindan iliskili oldugu genelde kabul edilen bir gorustur. Bu calismanin ilk temel amaci; somut bir ekonomik kriz tanimi ve siniflandirmasindan yola cikilarak Turkiye’de 1969-2001 doneminde yasanan en onemli enflasyon, reel sektor ve doviz krizlerinin hangi hukumetler zamaninda ortaya ciktiginin istatistiksel olarak aylik veriler yardimiyla saptanmasidir. Bu amacla, makalede birer enflasyon krizi, reel kriz ve doviz piyasasi baski endeksi olusturulacak ve bunlar, mevcut calismada henuz herhangi bir sebep-sonuc iliskisi ayrica arastirilmaksizin, ulkedeki politik istirarsizligin onemli bir gostergesi oldugu kabul edilen hukumet degisim donemleri ile kabaca karsilastirilacaktir. Çalismada ikinci olarak; onceden hesaplanan uc ekonomik baski veya kriz endeksinin yardimiyla 1978-2001 donemi icin birer stagflasyonist baski ve genel ekonomik kriz endeksi turetilmesi amaclanmaktadir. Bu iki endeksteki asiri dalgalanmalar, stagflasyon krizi ve genel ekonomik kriz donemlerinin saptanmasi amaciyla kullanilacaktir.
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Long-Run Economic Growth: An Interdisciplinary Approach
2001, co-authored with Sel Dibooglu, published in 'Knowledge, Technology & Policy'
Economic growth and development is a complicated process that falls into the domain of many disciplines in social sciences and humanities. It is natural then to study fundamental aspects of economic growth synthesizing research in relevant fields. In this short paper, we argue that this has rarely been the case in the economic growth literature. We briefly discuss past growth theories and empirics, and present a broad framework to compare and evaluate work on economic growth from an interdisciplinary perspective.
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Free Zones in Turkey and Their Macroeconomic Effects
1997, published in 'The Concepts and Instruments of the Economic Development in Turkey: A Model for Palestine?'
In this paper, the author presents a simple theoretical framework to discuss the potential contributions of free trade zones on the host country. Then, he mainly concentrates on the effects of free zones in Turkey on the Turkish economy. Note: This is the revised version of the paper which is presented at the seminar on "The Concepts and Instruments of the Economic Development in Turkey: A Model for Palestine?", October 26-30, 1995, Antalya, Turkey.
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